No snow is in the forecast for the Chicago area, and if that proves correct, we'll tie the 1994 record of 280 days between measurable snowfalls today.
If Monday closes without snow, 2012 will break the record.
The key factor is the word "measurable," said state climatologist Jim Angel. Measurable snow is defined as one-tenth of an inch or more — any less is considered "trace," he said, such as the snow measured at O'Hare on Nov. 23.
There has been some snow in other north and northwest suburban areas. ChicagoWeatherCenter.com reports that Lake Geneva, Wis., got .4 inches Friday night into Sunday morning, and Roscoe, Wonder Lake and Harvard all got .1 inch.
Northern Illinois, including Rockford and counties farther west, is expected to see some accumulation today, according to the National Weather Service, and a stronger storm crossing northern Wisconsin and Michigan could leave up to 10 inches of snow on the ground today, according to ChicagoWeatherCenter.com.
In Chicago, though, we're expected to see nothing but unseasonably warm temperatures in the 40s and a light rain that will taper off as the day goes along. Monday's forecast, which includes slightly cooler temperatures, is similar, with some "scattered snow flurries and snow showers," according to the National Weather Service.
The timing of this year's first snow has stumped Angel, who said the average number of days between last and first snowfalls recorded at O'Hare, Chicago's official weather recording station, is 224.
"I've already lost in the office pool for the first measurable snow this year," Angel said. "My pick was Nov. 27."
WGN-TV meteorologist Steve Kahn said the drought has much to do with this year's record-breaking weather. Last winter's snowfall measured only 19.8 inches — a little more than half of the 36.7 inches marked as the average at O'Hare.
"We had an early end to the snow season — last year was notable particularly for its warm March," Kahn said. "That's why we have this record on the table now."
Angel said the drought, coupled with a dry November, are to thank for the lack of snowfall. November measured 0.95 inch of precipitation at O'Hare — less than half of normal rainfall, he said.
The lack of snow so far doesn't mean much for overall snowfall this winter. On average, about 90 percent of Chicago's average seasonal snowfall typically comes after Dec. 9, Kahn said.
chicagobreaking@tribune.com
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City on verge of 'snowless' record
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City on verge of 'snowless' record
